About $75 billion in federal, state, regional and local revenue is expected for transportation in San Francisco through 2040. Over 65% of this will come from local funding sources, such as the Prop K half-cent transportation sales tax and the $10 Prop AA vehicle registration fee. Over 90% ($70 billion) of the expected funds are already committed to specific projects (such as the Presidio Parkway, Central Subway, Caltrain Electrification, Van Ness Avenue Bus Rapid Transit, and more) and purposes (primarily transit operations, transit state of good repair/maintenance and local street maintenance such as street resurfacing). This means that of the $75 billion in revenue we expect through 2040, only about $5 billion is uncommitted or discretionary, meaning we can decide how it should be invested to improve our transportation system. See more detail on expected revenues for transportation in San Francisco through 2040.
However, San Francisco’s needs for transportation funding far exceed expected revenue. For instance, even if we spent every cent of discretionary funds on transit and streets maintenance, repair and replacement projects, we still would not have enough just to maintain the existing transportation system in a state of good repair - let alone make safety and livability enhancements or address planned growth.
The SFTP (through its investment plans and policy recommendations) proposes ways to invest the dollars we expect to have to most effectively make progress towards our goals, but analysis shows that this progress is limited unless we identify new revenues. So, the SFTP recommends a two-pronged revenue strategy (see right). First, the SF Investment Plan calls for advocating for additional new federal, state, and regional funding sources (consistent with the Bay Area’s long-range transportation plan, Plan Bay Area). Second, the SF Investment Vision calls for an additional $7.5 billion in locally-controlled revenues that San Francisco could put into place and direct towards transportation. With $7.5 billion in additional local revenues, the SF Investment Vision achieves more of our maintenance, livability, and economic competitiveness goals, and makes more progress towards our ambitious environmental goals.
The SFTP evaluated a range of potential new local revenue sources, considering factors like revenue stability, growth potential, equity, and likelihood of being put into place. A combination of sources such as those pictured above could provide the $7.5 billion additional local funding to support the SF Investment Vision. Learn more about potential new revenues evaluated through the SFTP. The Mayor’s Transportation 2030 Task Force is currently developing recommendations for new local revenue sources.